Bragging About Census Hiring Starts Already; I’ll Take The Under

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

Fresh on the heels of a snow job where Bernanke warned economists to disregard effects that did not happen (and anyone doing any semblance of research should have known would not happen) we now see media trumpeting up census hiring as if it was not temporary.

In case you missed the snow job analysis please see …

Having expected to see job losses up to 220,000 in last Friday’s report, economists have now gone the other direction trumpeting part-time census jobs that will vanish by June or July.

Census Hiring Hype

Please consider this unthinking headline Obama Job Losses May Turn on 300,000 March Payrolls.

The U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March, the most in four years, setting the stage for what some economists say will be sustained employment gains.

Better weather, hiring of temporary government workers and a growing economy may bring the biggest job increases since March 2006, said David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The rise would be the second since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009.

February payrolls dropped by 36,000, the Labor Department reported last week, depressed in part by East Coast snowstorms that closed many businesses. Excluding the effects of the weather and the hiring of government workers to conduct the 2010 Census, payrolls would have climbed by about 100,000, Greenlaw said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

“If you get a plus 100,000 number again in March, then you’d be talking about a headline reading of a little bit better than 300,000 when you factor in the weather bounce-back and the census effect,” he said.

Mish Comment: Hello Greenlaw – Is the headline all this is important? Does the fact that all of these jobs will vanish by June mean anything?

The February drop in payrolls was smaller than the 68,000 median decline forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the March 5 report. The jobless rate, which hasn’t increased since October, held at 9.7 percent, even as more people entered the workforce.

Mish Comment: Go figure. Bernanke trumped up the affect of snow and economists upped their job loss estimates to ridiculous levels, some over 200,000. I called this in advance, as the above links show.

“We expect a sharp snapback in March payrolls as well,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, the most accurate forecaster in a Bloomberg News survey in December. He didn’t give a specific estimate.

Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in a March 6 e-mail to customers that he anticipates payrolls this month will climb by about 275,000. About 50,000 of that represents the “underlying trend” in employment, he said, with about 100,000 attributable to the weather and another 125,000 to the census.

Mish Comment: Even after analysis shows that snow had no effect, economists are attributing 100,000 jobs to snow.

Joseph LaVorgna is more upbeat about the employment outlook, anticipating payroll gains averaging about 300,000 for the next three to four months.

“We have overcut inventories, we have overcut capital spending and we have overcut jobs,” said LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. A March payroll gain of as much as 450,000 “can’t be ruled out,” he said, and further increases are “going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the recovery.”

“We could easily see” 300,000 jobs added this month, Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Portfolios in Wheaton, Illinois, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “I don’t expect to see consistent gains of that size, but clearly March could be that number.”

I’ll Take The Under

“We have overcut inventories, we have overcut capital spending and we have overcut jobs,” said LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. A March payroll gain of as much as 450,000 “can’t be ruled out,” he said, and further increases are “going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the recovery.”

Even if by some miracle we see 450,000 jobs in March, they will all vanish by June. Not one of the clowns quoted in the article mentioned either of these points

1. These jobs are part-time
2. They will be gone by June or July

Economist clowns were wrong about snow last month, and now they are massively wrong in the other direction, confusing part time, temporary hiring with a sustainable recovery.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.


Citizens’ Initiative Puts Spotlight On SF Muni Pay Schedule

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

In my post San Francisco Infested with Union Parasites and Pestilence; Outrage Over Transit Worker Pay I noted how greedy public unions finally overplayed their hand by rejecting an 8% pay raise with a contract that guarantees they get the second highest pay in the nation.

In a followup story, Supervisor Sean Elsbernd is now going ahead with his initiative to address Muni pay, because the city council wimps did not have the courage or the decency to take on the unions. Please consider Proposed initiative aims at Muni drivers’ pay

A San Francisco supervisor is following through on his plan to curb Muni’s labor costs and on Monday submitted a proposed initiative for the November ballot.

The plan takes direct aim at a controversial salary formula enshrined in the city charter that for more than four decades has guaranteed Muni drivers their spot as the second highest-paid transit operators in the nation.

It also would eliminate a trust fund for Muni operators that has resulted in yearly payouts of up to $3,000 for full-time operators. The fund originally was established to help defray health care costs for dependents, but operators can use that money any way they choose.

Elsbernd turned his proposal over to the city attorney for official review Monday and hopes to start collecting signatures by month’s end to qualify it for the fall ballot.

He has until July 6 to collect the valid signatures of nearly 47,000 voters registered in the city.

Elsbernd has the backing of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce and the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association, a civic think tank, but many at City Hall and in the transit-advocacy community are taking a much more cautious approach.

If enough valid signatures are gathered, the proposed amendment would be on the Nov. 2 ballot.

What Took So Long?

That’s all it takes? So, what took so long? If voters approve this, expect to see more such initiatives.

Irwin Lum, president of Transport Workers Union Local 250-A, responded by saying “To just focus on operators isn’t right and isn’t fair.”

Yes, indeed, San Francisco needs to do something about all union termites and parasites, not just the union termites and parasites at Muni. Moreover, it is sad to gather all those signatures only to do a wimpy job on an initiative that does not go far enough.

“What this will do is divide people instead of dealing with the bigger issue of funding” said, Irwin Lum.

No. What will do is unite voters against city hall and unions. When this passes, and I expect this to easily pass because the proposal is so modest, citizens will be even more encouraged by such measures. It’s the perfect out for council wimps who do not have to challenge unions directly yet, it offers what seems to be a relatively easy process for citizens to take matters into their own hands.

Although Elsbernd did not go far enough (perhaps on purpose to make sure this passes), he must be commended for having the courage to start the city on the road to curbing union termites and pestilence.

Expect this initiative to pass, and emboldened citizens to follow up with more termite ridding measures.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.


Runaway Prius = Driver FAIL

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

The runaway Prius story is just full of FAIL.

The driver didn't know he could put the car in neutral with a flick of his wrist, or push and hold the starter button to kill the engine.
The police officer which talked to him over the loudspeaker told him to use the emergency brakes–did the police officer know to suggest neutral or killing the engine?
There is no excuse for a sticky throttle pedal.  But there is also no excuse for not knowing how to control your vehicle.  It is lucky that in this case, somehow the ignorance didn't cause injury or death.

U.S. Census Money Waste

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

Today I got a letter in the mail with official markings on it, U.S. Census. But it seemed awful skinny to be a census form. Sure enough, it was a letter informing me that in a week, I will get a census form, and that it is very important that I fill it out.

What a stupid waste of money and trees.

U.S. Census Money Waste

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

Today I got a letter in the mail with official markings on it, U.S. Census. But it seemed awful skinny to be a census form. Sure enough, it was a letter informing me that in a week, I will get a census form, and that it is very important that I fill it out.

What a stupid waste of money and trees.

Mutual Fund Cash Depletion Highest Since 1991

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

In what can best be described as a contrarian indicator with an uncertain timing trigger, Mutual Fund Cash Depletion Highest Since 1991.

Equity mutual funds are burning through cash at the fastest rate in 18 years, leaving them with the smallest reserves since 2007 in a sign that gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slow.

Cash dropped to 3.6 percent of assets from 5.7 percent in January 2009, leaving managers with $172 billion in the quickest decrease since 1991, Investment Company Institute data show. The last time stock managers held such a small proportion was September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stocks will rally this year as the prospect of higher interest rates lures cash from fixed-income securities to equity accounts, says Mark Bronzo at Security Global Investors. Data from ICI, the Washington-based lobbying group for professional money managers, show investors have pumped $369 billion into bond funds since March 2009 versus $23.4 billion for equities.

“There’s so much money in the fixed-income market and there’s so much money in money-market instruments paying almost nothing,” said Bronzo, whose firm oversees $21 billion, in an interview from Irvington, New York. “If that money shifts to stock funds, it’s going to be very bullish.”

Equities may be boosted by investors deploying some of the $3.17 trillion held in money-market funds tracked by ICI. While $754.3 billion has moved from the accounts in 14 months for the fastest decline on record, Bronzo says more cash will be withdrawn as investors gain confidence in the economy.

It gets tiring pointing this out, but the only time money can move into the equity market is at IPO time or other offerings. Otherwise it is impossible for sideline cash to move into equities. For every buyer there is a seller. At the end of any normal equity transaction, there is as much cash on the sidelines as before.

So many misunderstand the simple mathematical function of buying and selling, that I feel obliged to make corrections.

Sentiment, Not Sideline Cash, Is The Driving Force

Share prices do not move up because sideline cash comes in (as noted above it cannot happen in the first place). Share prices rise or fall because buyers or sellers are more aggressive in what they are willing to do. In other words shares are repriced and sentiment is the driving force.

For those who want a second opinion, John Hussman has written about sideline cash on several occasions. Please consider There’s No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines.

Moreover, it’s important not to confuse money with debt. Sideline cash is really sideline credit. There is actually very little real cash available relative to total debt and what is needed to service that debt.

Suggestions to “Buy the Dip” based on sideline cash not only shows a lack of understanding about how markets work, they also show a lack of understanding about how extreme sentiment is among fund managers.

Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist.

Risk is not high, it is extreme. When it all matters is anyone’s guess.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.


Mutual Fund Cash Depletion Highest Since 1991

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

In what can best be described as a contrarian indicator with an uncertain timing trigger, Mutual Fund Cash Depletion Highest Since 1991.

Equity mutual funds are burning through cash at the fastest rate in 18 years, leaving them with the smallest reserves since 2007 in a sign that gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slow.

Cash dropped to 3.6 percent of assets from 5.7 percent in January 2009, leaving managers with $172 billion in the quickest decrease since 1991, Investment Company Institute data show. The last time stock managers held such a small proportion was September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Stocks will rally this year as the prospect of higher interest rates lures cash from fixed-income securities to equity accounts, says Mark Bronzo at Security Global Investors. Data from ICI, the Washington-based lobbying group for professional money managers, show investors have pumped $369 billion into bond funds since March 2009 versus $23.4 billion for equities.

“There’s so much money in the fixed-income market and there’s so much money in money-market instruments paying almost nothing,” said Bronzo, whose firm oversees $21 billion, in an interview from Irvington, New York. “If that money shifts to stock funds, it’s going to be very bullish.”

Equities may be boosted by investors deploying some of the $3.17 trillion held in money-market funds tracked by ICI. While $754.3 billion has moved from the accounts in 14 months for the fastest decline on record, Bronzo says more cash will be withdrawn as investors gain confidence in the economy.

It gets tiring pointing this out, but the only time money can move into the equity market is at IPO time or other offerings. Otherwise it is impossible for sideline cash to move into equities. For every buyer there is a seller. At the end of any normal equity transaction, there is as much cash on the sidelines as before.

So many misunderstand the simple mathematical function of buying and selling, that I feel obliged to make corrections.

Sentiment, Not Sideline Cash, Is The Driving Force

Share prices do not move up because sideline cash comes in (as noted above it cannot happen in the first place). Share prices rise or fall because buyers or sellers are more aggressive in what they are willing to do. In other words shares are repriced and sentiment is the driving force.

For those who want a second opinion, John Hussman has written about sideline cash on several occasions. Please consider There’s No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines.

Moreover, it’s important not to confuse money with debt. Sideline cash is really sideline credit. There is actually very little real cash available relative to total debt and what is needed to service that debt.

Suggestions to “Buy the Dip” based on sideline cash not only shows a lack of understanding about how markets work, they also show a lack of understanding about how extreme sentiment is among fund managers.

Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist.

Risk is not high, it is extreme. When it all matters is anyone’s guess.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.


Toyota Vs. ABC: The Empire Strikes Back

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

It took The Galactic Empire^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Toyota a couple of weeks, but they finally have issued a formal rebuttal to the hack job that ABC and Professor Gilbert did to them on TV.   You can read the details here, but basically, it is the same conclusion that I came to (and posted about here).

Gilbert spliced into several wires on the throttle pedal harness, shorted two of them together through a resistance, and then shorted them to sensor power.  In other words, he induced a multi-point failure, with very specific parameters.  If he had done the splicing in a different order, or shorted different wires, or used a different resistor, it would not work.
Gilbert proved that you can re-wire a car to misbehave.  He didn't come even close to proving that this is what is going on in the field.  
ABC proved that it would rather stir the pot and get people excited, while providing ammo for trial lawyers, than report responsibly on a highly technical issue.  They even threw in some faked tachometer footage to make things look more dramatic–hilariously, with all the telltales illuminated, showing a vehicle at rest, with doors open, and in park.
I would like to see ABC and Gilbert now defend their piece, by explaining how it is relevant to the Toyota untended acceleration issue.

Toyota Vs. ABC: The Empire Strikes Back

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

It took The Galactic Empire^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Toyota a couple of weeks, but they finally have issued a formal rebuttal to the hack job that ABC and Professor Gilbert did to them on TV.   You can read the details here, but basically, it is the same conclusion that I came to (and posted about here).

Gilbert spliced into several wires on the throttle pedal harness, shorted two of them together through a resistance, and then shorted them to sensor power.  In other words, he induced a multi-point failure, with very specific parameters.  If he had done the splicing in a different order, or shorted different wires, or used a different resistor, it would not work.
Gilbert proved that you can re-wire a car to misbehave.  He didn't come even close to proving that this is what is going on in the field.  
ABC proved that it would rather stir the pot and get people excited, while providing ammo for trial lawyers, than report responsibly on a highly technical issue.  They even threw in some faked tachometer footage to make things look more dramatic–hilariously, with all the telltales illuminated, showing a vehicle at rest, with doors open, and in park.
I would like to see ABC and Gilbert now defend their piece, by explaining how it is relevant to the Toyota untended acceleration issue.

Debt for Diploma Schemes and the Cookie Monster Principle

Posted by: admin  :  Category: Hybrid

Inquiring minds are investigating a 44 page PDF by the Center for College Affordability on why financial aid is ineffective. Please consider Financial Aid in Theory and Practice.

Executive Summary

Financial aid programs are supposed to improve access and affordability in higher education. The effectiveness of these programs is increasingly being questioned as college attainment figures stagnate and the financial burden on students and families continues to climb year after year. This report identifies the main culprit for this unsatisfactory state of affairs as a misunderstanding of the effect of financial aid on schools.

Currently, financial aid programs take costs per student as a given, and attempt to offset some of those costs. However, costs are not given. In fact, it is widely acknowledged that colleges and universities are engaged in an academic arms race. Thus, when financial aid programs make more money available to schools, this money is spent and results in higher costs per student. The end result is more costly higher education, generally accompanied by higher tuition, which has negative implications for access and affordability.

Figure 5: Financial Aid, Enrollment, Spending and Tuition, 1986-2007

The original theory of financial aid would predict that the increases in federal aid and state appropriations over the last twenty years should primarily affect enrollments and affordability. Figure 5 shows the trends over time for a number of variables (inflation adjusted where appropriate), each of which is indexed using 1986 as the base year. Since 1986, federal aid has nearly tripled, while state
appropriations (total, not per student) have increased by slightly more than 40 percent. But enrollments at both two and four year schools have only increased by about 40 percent. If one looks at graduates, rather than enrollments, the figures are even worse. Moreover, the financial burden on students, as measured by the level of tuition and required fees, has almost doubled, as has spending per student.

Unintended Consequences: Ravenous Cookie Monsters Engaged in an Arms Race

Fundamentally, there are unintended consequences of the current financial aid system because from the perspective of competing schools, it does not make sense to take their costs, subtract the state subsidy per student, and charge the remainder in tuition (some of the money for which comes from grants and loans to students). Schools have an incentive to spend as much as possible, because spending is useful in building a better school (or at least what appears to be a better school).

The ravenous need of schools for money was originally described as “Bowen’s Rule – All universities, and in particular major institutions with or seeking elite status, will use any and all funds they receive for the pursuit of perceived excellence and improvement.”17 Bowen’s Rule has been confirmed by others such as Charles Clotfelter, who, as Rupert Wilkinson noted, showed that colleges “increased their prices and general spending because they could get away with it – not to make money in itself but to buy the best of nearly everything.” (Emphasis original)18

While spending money in the pursuit of excellence by universities sounds great—who doesn’t like excellence—there is the downside that whatever they spend has to come from somewhere. Indeed, the expenditure of additional resources is the same thing as raising the cost per student. Thus, if the financial aid system allows for schools to acquire additional resources, it will have the effect of raising costs per student.

Thus, the original theory is in need of revision. Instead of taking costs per student as given, the revised theory notes that financial aid can be expected, under certain circumstances, to lead to an increase in costs per student. Specifically, whenever aid is made available to students who are already paying existing costs, it will increase their ability to pay, which is noted by colleges who in turn increase the price they charge these students. The revenue is spent to improve the school, with the consequence that costs per student increase. This increase in costs is typically accompanied by an increase in tuition, which has negative consequences for affordability and access.

Before moving on, I should point out that I am not the first to put forward a critique of the financial aid system. In fact, quite a few people precede me:

  • “If anything, increases in financial aid in recent years have enabled colleges and universities blithely to raise their tuitions, confident that Federal loan subsidies would help cushion the increase.”28
  • “One result of the federal government’s student financial aid programs is higher tuition costs at our nation’s colleges and universities.”29
  • “Ironically, federal programs in totality give incentive for institutions to increase tuition and to set high sticker prices.”30
  • “Each institution faces the choice of maintaining tuition at the lowest possible level or of raising tuitions to ‘harvest’ the federal student aid as an indirect institutional subsidy.”31

The first statement is all the more remarkable because it was coming from the Secretary of Education at the time, and later came to be known as the Bennett Hypothesis. It is perhaps the most widely known critique of the financial aid system. The argument is that financial aid would increase the ability of students to pay, but that schools would see this and either (1) raise tuition; or (2) cut back
on their own aid.

How Schools Spend Money

  • The University of Illinois spent $6 million on the Irwin Academic Services Center which “helps only about 550 of the school’s 37,000 students” because it is restricted to athletes. But, “at least four other schools have multimillion-dollar tutoring centers just for their athletes” including the $12 million facility at the University of Michigan.54
  • Princeton built a $136 million, 500-bed dorm ($272,000 per bed, much more than the median home costs).55 MIT’s Simmons Hall cost $194,000 per bed.56
  • “Framingham State College will spend more than $191,000 building a two-car garage and
  • stone patio for its state-owned president’s house …even as the college’s budget faces a potential $2 million cut”57
  • The University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey “spent more than $80,000 in 2005 to shuttle the head of a volunteer advisory board from her home in Pennsylvania’s Poconos to the school’s Newark campus.”58
  • Ohio State University spent $140 million60 “to build what its peers enviously refer to as the Taj Mahal, a 657,000-square-foot complex featuring kayaks and canoes, indoor batting cages and ropes courses, massages and a climbing wall big enough for 50 students to scale simultaneously”61
  • The University of California gave 16 employees severance checks, and then rehired them. In the most egregious example, one person “left her old job on April 30 and began her new one on May 1.” She was given the same salary, but managed to collect a $100,202 severance payment anyway. And prior to this she was given “a $44,000 relocation allowance and a low interest $832,500 home loan, for which she was not otherwise entitled.”62
  • In 2006-2007, 293 employees at private schools made more than $500,000. “[T]he highest paid college employee in the country was Pete Carroll, head football coach at the University of Southern California, with $4.4-million in total compensation (pay plus benefits).”63

Amazingly, the article outlines all of those problems and yet ends up with ridiculous solutions such as tailoring a program of grants based on need in conjunction with some sort of preconceived notion as to what an education should cost.

Returning to the executive summary, the author, Andrew Gillen states “The only large program that does not contribute to the arms race is the means-tested Pell grant program.

Really?!

Email Regarding Pell Grants

In response to University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots I received several emails regarding Pell Grants.

“Matt” Writes:

Hey Mish

I live in Phoenix and have many friends working for the University of Phoenix. there. The big joke there is the Pell Grant. Most first time students call to get it but never finish one day of class. Because it’s a grant, they keep the cash and never pay it back.

“Art” writes:

Thank you once again for exposing the corrupt government policies involving student loans. I also largely worked my way through undergraduate and three graduate programs. When I was in my doctoral program we were able to borrow tuition-level amounts from Pell grants. Those proved quite difficult to repay actually. Just after I finished these programs the loan mavens raised the available amounts, made the loans immune to bankruptcy, and people began borrowing tuition and lifestyle support monies.

The part that you may not be aware of is that financial vampirism has now come full circle with many Universities FORBIDDING graduate students to have any part time employment. They now MUST borrow a full ride. At our hospital we have medical and other advanced students in trainee status. The medical students tell me that they will graduate with over $300,000 in student loans and the Psychology students (depending on their schools) as much as $200,000+ in student loan debt. This means that these professionals must find the most lucrative practice subspecialties to enter or they will never be able to repay these mountains of debt. Many will fail.

The social stupidity of all this is unbelievable. We have a generation of financially crippled professionals coming on. We need these people in the areas of their training, particularly general practices, clinics etc. and yet many will not be functional because they will be fleeing from debt collectors or competing for scarce positions. Many will simply become disillusioned and quit. They will not be able to afford the amenities of life, having families etc. if they play by the rules. On the government-public policy side we have malinvested gigantic quantities of money and degraded the resource, health professionals, that we were attempting to improve.

Sincerely

Art

Pell Grant Money Goes To For-Profit Colleges

Let’s wrap this up with For-profit colleges haul in gov’t aid.

Students aren’t the only ones benefiting from the billions of new dollars Washington is spending on college aid for the poor.

An Associated Press analysis shows surging proportions of both low-income students and the recently boosted government money that follows them are ending up at for-profit schools, from local career colleges to giant publicly traded chains such as the University of Phoenix, Kaplan and Devry.

Last year, the five institutions that received the most federal Pell Grant dollars were all for-profit colleges, collecting more than $1 billion among them. That was two and a half times what those schools hauled in just two years prior, the AP found, analyzing Department of Education data on disbursements from the Pell program, Washington’s main form of college aid to the poor.

This year, the trend is accelerating: In the first quarter after the maximum Pell Grant was increased last July 1, Washington paid out 45 percent more through the program than during the same period a year ago, the AP found. But the amount of dollars heading to for-profit, or “proprietary,” schools is up even more — about 67 percent.

For-profits are also grabbing a growing share of loans subsidized by the government to help low-income students. They collected about $7 billion in subsidized Stafford loans in 2008-2009, up from $4.7 billion two years before. Taxpayers subsidize the interest rate and take the hit when students default. Nearly one-quarter of students at for-profit schools default within four years, more than double the rate of other schools.

Overall, the sector enrolled about 2.7 million students in 2007-2008, the latest year with complete federal data available. That was only about 10 percent of total enrollment in higher education, but it’s about 2 million more than a decade before.

The numbers are even more striking for low-income students: The number of Pell recipients enrolled in for-profit schools is 50 percent higher than two years ago.

A Real Solution

Notice the opening gambit in the previous article: “Students aren’t the only ones benefiting from the billions of new dollars Washington is spending on college aid for the poor.

The reality is students are not benefiting at all, and taxpayers are taken to the cleaners by non-students who take the grant money and run.

The whole scheme of Pell Grants, and government supplied financial aid in general is fallacious.

The best solution is to stop all financial aid for college at both the state and federal level. In addition, it’s time for schools to look at administrative costs, teacher salaries, pensions and the even the idea that everyone is suited for college.

Once that is done, costs will come down and more people will be able to afford higher education.

Of course, colleges are free to provide grants based on individual need, academic achievement, and school contributions. Indeed, that is the way it should work. Moreover, if forced by the free market to allocate money wisely, schools will have no choice but to do so. In turn that will keep costs as low as possible rather than as high as government funding allows.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.